Dollar exchange rate for 2016: expert forecasts
What factors will affect the dollar in 2016
The main factor influencing the value of the dollar and the ruble is still the cost of oil. If in 2016 oil will cost more than $ 60 per barrel, then the ruble will rise in relation to the US dollar (about 40–45 rubles per dollar).
A huge role is also played by Western sanctions against the Russian Federation. If sanctions are weakened in 2016, this fact is guaranteed to help the growth of the ruble against the US dollar. If the sanctions are maintained or tightened, the dollar will still cost about 60 rubles.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation maintains a policy oriented to the floating rate of the ruble. According to many experts, the situation in the currency markets has already stabilized, so the ruble in 2016 may begin to strengthen against the US dollar and the euro. However, along with this, there is a completely opposite opinion of experts. Some analysts believe that it is the floating rate policy of the ruble that could lead to its decline in 2016 relative to world currencies.
Not the last role is played by the political situation in the world.The outcome of events in Syria, Ukraine, Greece and the EU is unknown. These factors make it difficult to adequately assess the dollar rate relative to the Russian ruble in 2016.
What will be the dollar rate in 2016: the opinion of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Russian official agencies give bright forecasts regarding the dollar exchange rate in 2016: the situation on the foreign exchange markets will improve and the dollar will cost about 50–55 rubles. Such prospects for the ruble are due to import substitution and higher oil prices.
Russian experts believe that in 2016, the ruble exchange rate will be in the corridor of 49–63 rubles for one dollar. The maximum values will be fixed in September 2016, and the minimum in December next year.
Opinions of foreign experts
But foreign analysts believe that for one US dollar in 2016 they will give 70–75 rubles.
Why are foreign experts so pessimistic? Mainly due to sanctions and falling oil. Crisis phenomena in the Russian economy are also forecast, which will manifest themselves just in 2016.
What Goldman Sachs analysts say
But the experts of this authoritative agency believe that the dollar in 2016 will be fixed at around 58 Russian rubles per dollar.In their opinion, the price of oil has already passed its minimum and will grow.
What do ordinary people do
Based on the foregoing, there is simply no consensus among specialists: the international situation is very tense, no one can predict the outcome of many important events.
What will happen in 2016? None of the predictions can be considered absolutely accurate. In order to protect themselves from an unstable situation, experts recommend keeping their savings to citizens of Russia in several currencies at once. It’s time to break the traditional US dollars and euros and look at the yuan, Swiss francs and pounds sterling.
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